When you got nothing, you got nothing to lose.
Bob Dylan
I didn’t know Bob Dylan was poor! /s
He was at one point in his life.
I thought I was going to learn something new, but he just seems to have done the regular job search that many artists do? He had a stable family with a house and so on, didn’t live on the street or anything. Struggled the first year to get contracts for what I read but that’s about it.
Yeah, I guess poor is over stating it. Not rich maybe.
Dylan has more good advice here, when it comes to bubbles you don’t need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows!
I have hundreds of thousands of dollars to lose if the market pops lucky for time is on my side. This feels like the dot com bubble
Yippee!
I don’t have any money. Crash away. Fuck it.
Same with the GFC, 2007. I was broke, and did not even notice.
Yeah, like we haven’t been through multiple “generational” recessions.
At this point I feel like I’ve spent more time alive during recessions than not, so what’s one more for the pile - especially if it means getting to watch the AI bros go bankrupt.
Saddle up, sea biscuit
It has always been either the economy crashing because the AI bubble pops, or the economy crashes because the bubble didn’t pop due to AI successfully replacing enormous numbers of workers.
It’s not AI it’s UBI. AI is going to happen. What was important was an orderly transition to UBI.
That goalpost will soon switch to “well, this wasn’t the real ai anyway”
That was always the real goalpost. Any claims otherwise were just fraudulent marketing
UBI won’t work without LVT
What’s LVT?
AI is going to happen.
Oh? So there are hard numbers showing a positive ROI now?
These LLMs are not the type of AI that’s going to do the things they claim AI can do.
Yeah, when will people catch up on how they actually work (I’d put a “lol” here if it wasn’t so sad).
Or the economy crashes by AI replacing everyone and doing an absolute terrible job, causing stuff like supply chain collapse and communication/power outages.
I have yet to see someone explain how this whole thing actually works out. Just a dozen different scenarios that turn out terrible for almost everyone. The only scenario that works out is if a handful of people like Altman absolutely rule the world, become de facto dictators as they are the ones that control the few AI companies that run everything. And by work out, I mean it works out for that handful of people. For the rest of the world it’s probably just about the worst case scenario. But you just know it’s the scenario scammy Altman is hoping for.
economy of paid subscriptions needs to die. ☑️
I agree, I deleted almost every app that has a subscription
If the apps have a pay once and buy once option then I keep and don’t delete
Yeah wow hey maybe you should have fucking listened to everyone who’s been saying that for goddamn YEARS.
If that’s the thing that kills the economy, the economy deserves to be killed
No our federal government will spend billions to bail out whatever AI companies are favored by trump this week.
Which economy? The billionaire economy of the normies economy?
For normal people it will just mean some inflation increase and interest rates increase
Nothing we havent seen in the past few years
…you don’t remember 2008, do you? Mass layoffs, small businesses closing in droves, difficulty getting loans, new grads unable to get adequate jobs for years (half the millennial cohort is still behind due to it)
We will follow the billionaires into it economic hell. In solidarity of course.
Fuck, I wish we had a choice in this.
We could always make them feel like life is hell and death would be welcome, especially considering that they’re doing it to us., and they. Do. Not. Care.
They can fuck all our pensions up for good and starve us. That’s what it took to start the French Revolution, this time it’s gonna be global though.
First one, then the other because it’s only fair
ah, because the billionaires are going to suck the blood from the regular economy like a vampire to recover
Recover? No they buy low and double their take (or 100x or whatever the ratio is at this point).
We’re doing trillionaires now don’t forget. Even though Elon might not be anymore, there will be others unless we get our act together.
They prepare the too big to fail speech I think
LFG
I can burst it quick if I invest in Nvidia and AMD.
I’m usually a rationalist but nothing can convince me that Sod’s Law isn’t somehow baked into the structure of the universe.
AMD is an industry leader with a huge economic moat and I think they will be okay when the bubble pops. I’m not sure about Nvidia though, despite having superb chips, because the problem is they loaned to companies to buy their chips. So, Nvidia’s finances will be strained because Jensen Huang created a ponzi scheme that could not repay or be profitable to itself.
Not really a ponzi, more like circular financing. Nvidia exposed itself to the AI bust for no reason other than to keep the money flowing to buy his chips for a little longer. He was selling shovels in a gold rush and screwed it up.
nvidia gives a trillion dollars to AI, AI buys a trillion dollars of future, currently unmade video cards to run the AI, nvidia gives AI another trillion dollars, AI buys another trillion dollars of unmade future cards, etc etc etc.
Its the biggest, highest energy economic ouroborus I’ve ever seen.
I cant see how nvidia survives the pop, and quite frankly, I’d be glad to see nvidia die. its been dragging the GPU market in bad directions for a decade+ now and I think it’d be better to be free of its influence… and it’d open the door to new players to step up and competition again.
Sigh. Guess I’m gonna go read Ed Zitron’s latest rant.
Haven’t read it yet, no idea what he’s on about today, but here’s the link.
https://www.wheresyoured.at/the-more-you-buy-the-more-you-lose/Two years ago, NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang said that “the more you buy, the more you save,”
Well, two years ago he was kind of right. But not in the way he meant it. But I should have bought 64gb instead of 32gb RAM when I built my gaming system
For what? I have 64gb and have almost never utilized it all. Maybe if I used integrated graphics running modded factorio on a big map with all of the graphics overhauls.
Future, not present, requirements.
I rarely hit 16GB but to each their needs!
could, you mean will. when that happens all those tech people in AI will likely be first to be laid off, the first signs would be the sudden evaporation of AI tech conferences in many hubs,. and all those catering companies, food companies that depend on these conferences is going to hurt too.
AI isn’t going away just like dotcom companies didn’t go away. They are in for a steep hair cut though and many companies will not survive.
So the top 7 companies hedged their entire futures on something unsustainable? In the last 12 months Oracle already laid off over 50,000 employees to bottom-line their AI goals (30,000 ish and 21,000ish a couple weeks ago).
Are we at the point of stocking up on materials and pulling $$ from banks for the inevitable collapse?
Well, ehm… Worldwide or “just” the US economy who build up on this shit the last year or so?
Not sure how the follow up impact will be on other countries, but first of, the US will be fucked
Not having to pay crazy security contract or having to pay extraordinary amount or use Chinese/open sources models
Too big to fail…again…
The 2008 bailout happened because it was the banking sector that was exposed. If the consumer banks fail, everybody’s accounts go up in flames.
Part of getting that bailout was that the banks had to restructure to insulate commercial banking from investment banking. Supposedly the investment arm can now get taken out, and the damage to the commercial arm is limited. I’ll believe that when I see it. The big question at the moment is “how exposed are the banks?”.
Oracle, Nvidia, Microsoft, OpenAI, Anthropic are all massively exposed. Nvidia and Microsoft might be big enough for a decimated version of themselves to come out the other side. Everyone else is going to the wall. No need to bail them out though. That’s a contained explosion.
If the bank are making loans of hundreds of billions thinking they’re sure fire money makers, but actually they’re piles of shit, then it’s 2008 again. That’s when we see if they really protected the commercial arms of their banks.
Well, since all new protections from 2008 have already been shredded, what would you think?
