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I’m guessing the lost funds are bleeding out to energy concerns. Correct? Asides from brief construction contracts for data centers, I’m unsure how one makes such large sums of money disappear.
There is a lot to unpack here, finance is interesting.
Investors spend money to build companies on the expectation that those companies will be worth more money than they spent in the future.
One way they spend that money is on the acquisition of bonds, which are firm guarantees against future debts. Bonds are often part of other financial structures (you’ll see them a lot in a hedge, which is a way to limit liability on an investment in exchange for some upside).
If I’m reading the article correctly, those bonds had a condition where they could be converted to shares at a certain price, so the investment and the hedge were part of the same instrument.
It’s not accurate to say that the money could have been deployed otherwise, one way to think about this is that large banks have very large, often self-issued, credit limits. Companies also have self-issued credit limits, related to the banks.
In this case specifically, some amount of this money is going to come out of the IPO, the 80 billion doesn’t exist in any other way.
tl;dr The 80 billion that ‘vanished’ here wasn’t actually spent on anything, it’s valuation against those bonds. It’s also an exciting headline.
Anyways, I hope this was helpful, these companies are definitely getting a lot of investment (running up their credit cards) in the hopes of a big payout, but this doesn’t have anything to do with private equities current running speculation on data center construction or power consumption, or any of those big problems.
From what I understood it’s not really money “lost”, it’s that the company was valued a certain amount and, with a bit of that hype dying down, it’s now valued 80 Billion less.
I’m not an expert on… pretty much any argument in this thread though, so if someone more knowledgeable can chime in I’d appreciate too.
Still supposed to be valued 1.500.000 Million dollars. Lol.
Goddamm… This could easily have housed every man, woman, and child in this country. But no, no free housing while we squander wealth with our stupid ideas.
Not to mention using all that land and water resources to prop up their AI ambitions.
this goes in line with thier aggresive pandering to the govt to be used mass surveillance.
Billion is officially the new million.
How have i never seen this before?
This is so on point.
Robin Williams is absolute treasure.
If any of these AI companies IPO, you could make a lot of money shorting them!
Spacex really changed the game, forcing the markets to load up that ish in our 401(k)'s.
Next, when Musk threatens to “gift” every child spacex stock in their Trump accounts, it’s another form of using the general public as an exit , well artificially propping up the moonshot companies stock values.
It is a Master Class in forcing volatility into the financial lives of not just retail investors but Main Street people.
In the first month, it was possible to make quite a bit of money shorting SPCX. It’s a fair play if you want to buy and hold it, but I’d much prefer to short a stock like SPCX for a multitude of reasons.
Though I respect anyone with the conviction to put their money where their mouth is.
In old days, but there are so many random retail investors in the market now keeping garbage stocks afloat. Same reason why Tesla is so over valued and why GameStop won’t die.
Nowadays, stocks are made of fairy dust and wishes. It’s all nonsense when fanboys get involved.
A billion here, a billion there. Over some time it might become quite a sum.
I’m totally spamming this across the thread with copy/vaste.
That is about what Taiwan just purchased in natural resources.
I’m doing my part by constantly asking chatgpt questions without ever logging in or paying them money. Eventually they’ll all go belly up and maybe we can ditch this shit.
80 billion could have bought a whole lot of Chinese EV’s to resale and they could have made a profit.
I’m totally spamming this across the thread with copy/vaste.
Oh yes I’ve seen that. He really did have a very high level of effortless explanation for it. Junkies fits perfectly.
Forget resale, for 80 billion you could probably get BYD to produce custom vehicles under your own brand.
No wonder they’re panicking so hard over open weight Chinese models
I firmly believe OpenAI, Anthropic, etc., will all eventually collapse under their own weight, meanwhile open weight distillations of their models will become the de facto standard for AI usage. There’s just no way they can ever make up all the money they’ve burned in R&D, especially when distillations are right behind them.
they have to pay off those datacenters somehow, the only one whos partially laughing to the bank is jensen.
What happens to Nvidia when the AI bubble pops though? They will lose so much revenue. Now they should be perfectly sustainable still given that they can sell GPUs to the same customers they used to. But will shareholders like that?
90% of Anthropic money is enterprise API use which is far less subsidised than their subscriptions being 10% of their income. OpenAI on the otherhand relies on the subs.
There is still going to be a big bubble bursting. It’ll be interesting to see how each company handles it.
Check out what portion of Anthropic revenues turned out to be processing distillation for others, namely Chinese market players.
A huge portion of their revenue basically came from their competitors using their horsepower against them to build the next, better mouse trap
Fortunately they keep pushing ahead so those competitors will need to keep paying them to distill.
Good.
Repeating the DotCom burst.
but worst. because some of those sites provided actual value, “AI” does not, most heavily used by Palantir/AI as mass surveillance and profiling people for bombings or harrasment.
I’m totally spamming this across the thread with copy/vaste.
i wish them ruin, you made my day
Idk man, to me, it feels like we are further from AGI than fusion reactors actually being hooked up to the grid, considering LLMs are still just glorified autocorrects, needing a ton of prompt injections from their providers. And yet, the AI companies make it seem like it’s right around the corner (obviously, because $$$), whereas to me it feels like we are still at least 50 years away. Maybe AGI will be the next fusion generator chase.
They did manage to do something different, though. I thought at one point that proof assistants should offer to automatically upload your proofs to a central repository so everyone can benefit from them. But such a system would require many to opt in for it to be useful.
What AI does best is giving you existing solutions. It even adapts them if they don’t quite fit. Because many people now discuss their ideas with AI, ideas may spread the same way as well when the conversations are used as training data.
So no, definitely not AGI but valuable. Though as typical of explosively growing startups the value does not come from the technology but from activity bordering on criminal that lawmakers can’t keep up with.
Because many people now discuss their ideas with AI, ideas may spread the same way as well when the conversations are used as training data.
As a training data it’s possible less then useful, unsupervised data like that is actively harmful. As a central repository of everyone’s private conversations it can be in a way useful, but I can’t understand how anyone could be OK with a private company reselling your most private data.
AGI has been achieved more or less because it just means self sufficient at completing tasks. An LLM is just a component these days because they are Vision-Audio-Language-Models with multi frequency ‘thought’ loops. The next letter is A for action where they just have high frequency outputs for direct computer and robot use.
Just because it is bad AGI doesn’t mean it is not AGI right
See the problem is that people expect AGI to learn on its own. LLMs sorta do with big enough context and writing memories, but… They also don’t. They don’t get better at reasoning or anything, they only get better at solving the tasks they’ve written notes on. Which are themselves often pretty bad notes.
They do learn they use search tools and create long term memories. Mechanically that is just tool use it isn’t magic. Do you need these things as emergent properties for them to be real? That would be cool but I don’t think it takes away what is possible now.
Ironically there was notable news in the fusion reactor space this week as Gemini 4, building on the work of Matt Landreman and GPT-6 Astra a little while ago, expanded counterexamples to Grad’s conjecture which had claimed exact solutions for controlling a key aspect of fusion were impossible.
So fusion may actually be more around the corner thanks to the advances of capabilities of AI which helped prove that the fusion problems aren’t as hard as they were thought to be for decades.
And if you actually believe that, I have an amazing business proposition to you. So, there is a bridge in NY, and I can sell it to you for very little money…
Building on other people’s work to provide examples for something is actually one of the things an LLM can be good for.
