I firmly believe OpenAI, Anthropic, etc., will all eventually collapse under their own weight, meanwhile open weight distillations of their models will become the de facto standard for AI usage. There’s just no way they can ever make up all the money they’ve burned in R&D, especially when distillations are right behind them.
What happens to Nvidia when the AI bubble pops though? They will lose so much revenue. Now they should be perfectly sustainable still given that they can sell GPUs to the same customers they used to. But will shareholders like that?
90% of Anthropic money is enterprise API use which is far less subsidised than their subscriptions being 10% of their income. OpenAI on the otherhand relies on the subs.
There is still going to be a big bubble bursting. It’ll be interesting to see how each company handles it.
I firmly believe OpenAI, Anthropic, etc., will all eventually collapse under their own weight, meanwhile open weight distillations of their models will become the de facto standard for AI usage. There’s just no way they can ever make up all the money they’ve burned in R&D, especially when distillations are right behind them.
they have to pay off those datacenters somehow, the only one whos partially laughing to the bank is jensen.
What happens to Nvidia when the AI bubble pops though? They will lose so much revenue. Now they should be perfectly sustainable still given that they can sell GPUs to the same customers they used to. But will shareholders like that?
90% of Anthropic money is enterprise API use which is far less subsidised than their subscriptions being 10% of their income. OpenAI on the otherhand relies on the subs.
There is still going to be a big bubble bursting. It’ll be interesting to see how each company handles it.
Check out what portion of Anthropic revenues turned out to be processing distillation for others, namely Chinese market players.
A huge portion of their revenue basically came from their competitors using their horsepower against them to build the next, better mouse trap
Fortunately they keep pushing ahead so those competitors will need to keep paying them to distill.