It will be 2008 all over again and we are still in the 2008 aftermath. Democrats are not brave enough to change things. No one who is going to be allowed near power is talking breaking up the monopolies and regulation. I don’t think things will improve until they have got worse still.
As a Brit, I just hope we, and Europe in general, kick America dependency to not get pulled round by their whims and eventual collapse. But most people’s digital lives are completely dependent on American monopolies. So much so they don’t dare even see it.
They can’t really bail them out like they did in 08. Just to compare Ford to OpenAI for sake of my argument. The collapse of Ford risked not only losing a company but also the institutional knowledge within on top of the fact that Ford itself could eventually pay off the loan which isn’t even getting into other benefits, for comparison what does the collapse of OpenAI risk beyond some edge case nonsense hell could they even pay off a loan. Trying to bail out the AI industry would be dead on arrival by default, the best you may be able to do is downsize them massively and maybe make them profitable via specialized sub industries but yet again that risks them collapsing regardless.
More to the point is the magnitude. Note that Ford ultimately didn’t get a bailout, but between GM and financial sector they did about $500 billion, which adjusted for inflation would be about $800 billion. That’s not enough to even cover OpenAI’s obligations by itself, let alone the broader AI industry. GM’s bailout was $50 billion.
Thanks for correcting and adding to my statement on how severe this whole thing is, I have it in my head but I’m a bit shit at elaboration. Also I knew it was one of the big three but I couldn’t remember if it was Ford or GM.
I’m not saying it is a good idea. Or even one the populous wants. I’d be shocked if it all allowed to collapse and dominoes fall where they may. It will all be wrapped in the flag and about maintaining America lead/power (monopolies) and force fed to voters by both parties. There are only two parties to buy.
Oh I got what you meant I just disagree. My point was that AI is a money burning party with nothing to show unlike basically any other industry, even if you bail them out once they’ll likely need to be bailed out again by the next quarter since they don’t really have a product to sell. Not even getting into all the debt a lot of these companies have or any future contracts that have been signed.
Point is even if they are bailed out it will amount to doing a blood transfusion on someone with an actively bleeding artery. They are far more likely to wipe everything else out than succeed, though I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the end goal for dipshits like Thiel. Maybe it’s a weird but of optism but I can’t quite see enough congresscritters siding with that since basically all of them gain their power through the government and the current economic systems continued existence.
You say they have nothing, but a lot of people are using it. Now I’d argue many aren’t getting value out of it, even at a 10th to 100th the actual cost, but they think they are. (Often it is someone else has to fix the slop)
And I’m not saying a government bailout is the end of it. It just kicks the can down the road further. And probably makes the final pop bigger.
There is a reason these guys are building bunkers. It’s not AI they are fearing. It is us. Rising up and demanded retribution. They are literally trying to work out how they can keep their security people under control in a collapse. And hoping to replace them with bots. Thinking they can maintain that themselves. Or leave earth and hide where we can’t go. It’s all absolutely mental.
I don’t think so on this one. Logistically it’s toast. Society has a negative outlook on it. You can’t sell AI like you can firearms and politicians aren’t going to stick their neck out for it.
It will all be about maintaining America lead/power (monopolies). Wrapped in a flag. It doesn’t have to be popular. There are only two parties and they will both be for it.
2008 had a very wide blast radius. If it was just a handful or even most banks that were in trouble it probably wouldn’t have been a bailout. Mortgage securities were everywhere and no one knew how much they were actually worth. Most the fortune 500 facing a double digit percentage loss was looking likely, which would have been catastrophic.
Compared to today it might be more money, but it’s isolated to the tech sector. Even then a lot of the worst of it is not on publicly traded companies .
Yeah, pretty sure they will get bailed out.
It will be 2008 all over again and we are still in the 2008 aftermath. Democrats are not brave enough to change things. No one who is going to be allowed near power is talking breaking up the monopolies and regulation. I don’t think things will improve until they have got worse still.
As a Brit, I just hope we, and Europe in general, kick America dependency to not get pulled round by their whims and eventual collapse. But most people’s digital lives are completely dependent on American monopolies. So much so they don’t dare even see it.
They can’t really bail them out like they did in 08. Just to compare Ford to OpenAI for sake of my argument. The collapse of Ford risked not only losing a company but also the institutional knowledge within on top of the fact that Ford itself could eventually pay off the loan which isn’t even getting into other benefits, for comparison what does the collapse of OpenAI risk beyond some edge case nonsense hell could they even pay off a loan. Trying to bail out the AI industry would be dead on arrival by default, the best you may be able to do is downsize them massively and maybe make them profitable via specialized sub industries but yet again that risks them collapsing regardless.
More to the point is the magnitude. Note that Ford ultimately didn’t get a bailout, but between GM and financial sector they did about $500 billion, which adjusted for inflation would be about $800 billion. That’s not enough to even cover OpenAI’s obligations by itself, let alone the broader AI industry. GM’s bailout was $50 billion.
Thanks for correcting and adding to my statement on how severe this whole thing is, I have it in my head but I’m a bit shit at elaboration. Also I knew it was one of the big three but I couldn’t remember if it was Ford or GM.
I’m not saying it is a good idea. Or even one the populous wants. I’d be shocked if it all allowed to collapse and dominoes fall where they may. It will all be wrapped in the flag and about maintaining America lead/power (monopolies) and force fed to voters by both parties. There are only two parties to buy.
Oh I got what you meant I just disagree. My point was that AI is a money burning party with nothing to show unlike basically any other industry, even if you bail them out once they’ll likely need to be bailed out again by the next quarter since they don’t really have a product to sell. Not even getting into all the debt a lot of these companies have or any future contracts that have been signed.
Point is even if they are bailed out it will amount to doing a blood transfusion on someone with an actively bleeding artery. They are far more likely to wipe everything else out than succeed, though I wouldn’t be surprised if that was the end goal for dipshits like Thiel. Maybe it’s a weird but of optism but I can’t quite see enough congresscritters siding with that since basically all of them gain their power through the government and the current economic systems continued existence.
You say they have nothing, but a lot of people are using it. Now I’d argue many aren’t getting value out of it, even at a 10th to 100th the actual cost, but they think they are. (Often it is someone else has to fix the slop)
And I’m not saying a government bailout is the end of it. It just kicks the can down the road further. And probably makes the final pop bigger.
There is a reason these guys are building bunkers. It’s not AI they are fearing. It is us. Rising up and demanded retribution. They are literally trying to work out how they can keep their security people under control in a collapse. And hoping to replace them with bots. Thinking they can maintain that themselves. Or leave earth and hide where we can’t go. It’s all absolutely mental.
I don’t think so on this one. Logistically it’s toast. Society has a negative outlook on it. You can’t sell AI like you can firearms and politicians aren’t going to stick their neck out for it.
It will all be about maintaining America lead/power (monopolies). Wrapped in a flag. It doesn’t have to be popular. There are only two parties and they will both be for it.
Well put. That’s the summary of it. Sadly
Hope we are wrong, I just don’t see going differently.
2008 had a very wide blast radius. If it was just a handful or even most banks that were in trouble it probably wouldn’t have been a bailout. Mortgage securities were everywhere and no one knew how much they were actually worth. Most the fortune 500 facing a double digit percentage loss was looking likely, which would have been catastrophic.
Compared to today it might be more money, but it’s isolated to the tech sector. Even then a lot of the worst of it is not on publicly traded companies .
When the dominoes fall, it is unlikely to be neatly contained due to the scale if nothing else.