A particularly surprising discovery is that CXMT is constructing its cleanrooms—where the actual silicon is produced—in just around 12 months, whereas the rest of the DRAM manufacturing industry typically takes 21-24 months, nearly a full year longer.
Finally, the report notes that the Chinese government is encouraging CXMT to transfer its DRAM technology IP to other Chinese DRAM manufacturers such as JHICC, Swaysure, and YTMC’s subsidiary XMC. This initiative aims to alleviate memory shortages domestically before CAMT-designed DRAM enters other markets, such as the EU and possibly even the U.S.
“assuming all current projects are completed on schedule”
From the article. This is the single largest fallacy one can engage in in engineering.
“CXMT is projected to produce about 350,000 DRAM wafers per month by the end of 2026, assuming all current projects are completed on schedule.”
This is a small blurb on a random tech site, it’s just giving a simple ‘if all goes well’ projection.
I’m sure they’re not setting the entire undertaking up so that if one thing ends up slightly delayed everyone’s heads will explode. It seems likely that they also have projections that take varying delays with varying parts and numbers of parts of the project into account, but that someone writing a small blurb on a tech site isn’t really privy to the entirety of their forecasting.
I don’t think they need you to rush in and save them from their folly.