This has been said before. Like I said maybe this time is different, but I’m not betting on it.
There has been consolidation among a few manufacturers for a long time. The silicon part isn’t the most expensive it’s the chip designs. If the prices say high we should see new startups emerge with new approaches and cheaper silicon. China is already making progress here, and nothing I’m seeing is telling me this time would be different from us chip designers. Also Europe is looking to get some us resilience and startups in chip design could happen there too.
It’s convenient to blame greed, and in some industries this is very relevant, but silicon is so much less defensible at least in the chip design industry that startups are likely to keep on coming as long as opportunity exists, which high prices are a pretty good indicator of high demand and limited supply.
I have worked in this industry for a long time, I’ve seen the cycles, and again I expect this time to cycle again.
I hope you are correct. I really do. But my fear is that they see how dependent we have become on this and what a tool of control it can be and simply make it illegal or otherwise very difficult for other start ups to get started.
It can there are only 3 producers and they can decide to not let the price drop
Except in my lifetime I’ve seen the prices of computer components swing wildly based on supply and demand.
Tech improvements tend to drive prices down not up, it’s less about supplier collusion in this particular market.
Maybe this time is different but I’m not betting on this.
Every DRAM manufacturer has pled guilty to price fixing https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DRAM_industry_price_fixing
If we still have governments holding them accountable, then it will go down. If we don’t, it won’t
You’re acting like they are like they were less than 10 years ago. They aren’t. They think they won the game and are just consolidating.
This has been said before. Like I said maybe this time is different, but I’m not betting on it.
There has been consolidation among a few manufacturers for a long time. The silicon part isn’t the most expensive it’s the chip designs. If the prices say high we should see new startups emerge with new approaches and cheaper silicon. China is already making progress here, and nothing I’m seeing is telling me this time would be different from us chip designers. Also Europe is looking to get some us resilience and startups in chip design could happen there too.
It’s convenient to blame greed, and in some industries this is very relevant, but silicon is so much less defensible at least in the chip design industry that startups are likely to keep on coming as long as opportunity exists, which high prices are a pretty good indicator of high demand and limited supply.
I have worked in this industry for a long time, I’ve seen the cycles, and again I expect this time to cycle again.
I hope you are correct. I really do. But my fear is that they see how dependent we have become on this and what a tool of control it can be and simply make it illegal or otherwise very difficult for other start ups to get started.