It’s not a bubble because of guess work, it’s a bubble because AI companies are taking on absurd amounts of debt, are trading that debt very quickly between themselves, and none of them have been able to show a profit and they are cheating every number in their favor and it still isn’t showing any profitably. so it’s not if the bubble bursts, it’s more, will this bullshit keep going if they never find profitably. all their avenues are pretty garbage, tokens are replacing payroll as a cut target for business, and the productivity they provide is not meeting need, AI slop is unpopular, police and military are slowly realizing a language model isn’t a reliable detective/ director of operations, also voters are alarmed they are trying to let AI do literally one of the most dangerous jobs you could trust to what’s effectively a particularly verbose racist toddler