On the one hand, I’m glad someone’s finally dragging us back into using one of the most potent energy sources available to mankind. On the other, of course it’s being driven by the miserable mess called “corporate AI”.
Best case scenario, the infrastructure for new nuclear platforms is available by the time the AI bubble bursts, leaving low-cost systems available for useful power generation. Worst case (or more likely, depending on your point of view): Manufacturers go bust after investing all that money, leaving people yet again mistakenly viewing nuclear as a pointless money pit.
Microsoft hasn’t signed because unlike the others they’re scaling back their datacenter plans… Massively. As in, they’ve cancelled 1000GW of future builds, which is equivalent to the entire compute power of London, AKA the datacenter capital of Europe.
MS has seen the writing on the wall; AI is a nothingburger. And keep in mind, MS basically owns OpenAI, the apparent leaders in the field, and has access to all their tech and IP. If Microsoft are calling bullshit, it’s not for a lack of information. They know exactly what Sam Altman is cooking up in secret, and it’s clear from their reaction that they know its just a new coat of paint on the same busted crap.
If OpenAI really were quietly working away on AGI, or some magical new version of ChatGPT that solves all its problems, MS would be in the best position to get out ahead and profit from that. They’d be building capacity and power generation like crazy.
This whole bubble is primed to burst.
Yeah AI is getting slim enough to run on consumer hardware, so the SaaS model isn’t going to work.
That’s part of it, but the bigger part is that the enterprise business has completely failed to manifest.
Transformer model based AI is, at best, a fun toy or a minor convenience. For example, as a coding assistant, it functions as a fairly effective and speedy search engine, so long as you have the skill to check the output. But it also shortcuts the research process for you in a way that makes you more likely to overlook any potential downsides in the solution it offers, or perhaps miss a better solution you might have found if you did the research yourself. It’s handy for stuff that’s low stakes, but not reliable enough for anything that really matters.
And as a replacement for a coder, it just sucks, producing bug riddled, insecure code that it lacks the ability to debug effectively, meaning you still have to employ coders to fix its output.
This is the story with every potential entreprise application; it can’t be trusted enough to replace the expensive humans it’s supposed to replace, and it doesn’t actually make the expensive humans substantially more productive when it assists them (this has been studied; while a lot of people will anecdotally claim AI makes their job easier, in practice the numbers show that it mostly either slows people down or makes no difference).
As a customer service agent, it’s a dangerous liability, with a habit of outright hallucinating answers, and vulnerable to prompt injections that could allow for all sorts of dangerous shenanigans if you give it the ability to actually start making decisions about refunds and rebates.
Replacing troublesome, expensive humans was always the real sales pitch. Every other feature these charlatans advertised was just part of a scam to keep us troublesome, expensive humans from complaining too loudly about getting replaced. When Sam Altman tells us that AI is going to cure cancer and solve global warming, he knows it’s a lie. But he also knows that “I want to take all your jobs” isn’t exactly great PR, so he has to invent reasons why this is actually a good thing.
But the real sales pitch hasn’t come through, and it’s increasingly apparent that it won’t. You don’t invest hundreds of billions of dollars into compute to sell a slightly “better” search engine, or an app that shows you a short video of you kissing your crush. Those are not products that are going to give that kind of return on investment.
I’m not saying that transformer model AI will never have any practical uses. But the big practical use, the one that was driving a truly unprecedented wave of tech investment; that isn’t happening. AI is not going to come and take all our jobs. Or, at least, this version of it isn’t. Microsoft have made the smart play by jumping off the runaway train before it reaches the bridge. They’re going to get fucked by this, but not nearly so hard as the people who don’t know when to fold.
